21st week of 2024. NVIDIA +15.3% — crosses $1,000 guess who predicted that 5 weeks ago. My Tech ETF +67.34% over the last 12 months.
Hello friends,
We’re back with new unbiased data for this week of the US stock market.
Nvidia +15.3% this week. Check out my article from 5 weeks ago. We bought on Tuesday at the dip.
NVIDIA In-Depth Analysis
1-Day Frame: Oscillators
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Looking at the 1-day frame for Nvidia (NVDA), I immediately notice the strong bullish momentum. The Stochastic RSI is sky-high at 97.82, clearly indicating an overbought condition. Typically, anything above 80 suggests overbought territory, so seeing it near 98 tells me we might be due for a short-term pullback or at least a period of consolidation.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reinforces this with a reading of 72.02. Again, above 70 is generally considered overbought. This tells me that the price might struggle to move significantly higher without some sort of correction or sideways movement to cool off these indicators.
Moreover, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is at 257.33, which is well above the overbought threshold of 100. This extreme level suggests that the current bullish trend might be overstretched. I'm anticipating a possible reversal or at least a slowdown in the upward momentum.
5-Day Frame: Swing Trading
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Shifting to the 5-day frame, the pivot points and resistance levels are particularly useful for my swing trading strategy. Nvidia is currently trading at $1,064.69, and the pivot point (P) is at $1,041.36. This level could act as a significant support if the price starts to retrace.
Key resistance levels are:
R1: $1,074.40
R2: $1,108.50
R3: $1,110.39
These levels are crucial as they indicate potential points where the price might face selling pressure. The recent high of $1,063.13 is close to R1, suggesting that breaking through $1,074.40 could open up further upside potential towards $1,108.50 and beyond.
On the downside, support levels to watch are:
S1: $1,014.92
S2: $1,009.80
S3: $966.39
Given the strong recent performance, I'm more focused on the upper resistance levels, but it's essential to keep these supports in mind to manage risk effectively.
30-Day Frame: MA Exp Ribbon
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The 30-day frame, with the Moving Average Exponential (MA Exp) Ribbon, shows a strong, sustained uptrend. The stock has been trading well above the ribbon, which ranges from about $1,006.65 to $1,042.18. This indicates strong bullish momentum. As long as the price stays above this ribbon, the bullish trend is likely to continue.
I see the MA Exp Ribbon as a dynamic support area. Even if the price pulls back, I expect it to find support within this ribbon range, around $1,006.65 to $1,042.18. This would be a natural point for the price to bounce back and resume its upward trajectory.
Future Predictions
In the short term, the overbought conditions indicated by the oscillators suggest that we might see a pullback or consolidation. However, given the strong bullish trend in the 30-day frame, I expect any pullback to be shallow. If Nvidia can break above the $1,074.40 resistance level, my next target would be $1,108.50.
Conversely, if there is a retracement, I'm looking at the pivot point at $1,041.36 or the support at $1,014.92 as key levels where the price might stabilize and provide a good buying opportunity.
Volumes also play a critical role. The high trading volume supports the current price levels, indicating strong interest and participation in the market. As long as the volume remains robust, I'm confident in the continuation of the uptrend.
Nvidia is showing strong bullish momentum but is currently overbought in the short term. I'm watching for potential pullbacks to key support levels for buying opportunities, while also keeping an eye on resistance levels where I might consider taking some profits. The overall trend remains bullish, supported by solid price action, volume, and technical indicators.
Now, do the split.
Another week of improvements to the newsletter:
Started testing SMS signals for the Stock Insider Emerging Tech ETF at scale with 200 premium subscribers. It will we released when it’s ready. I don’t want to release a product that isn’t perfect. ETA: 1 month, but if it takes 2 or 3 months, don’t murder me, please. Better wait than get bad signals.
Newsletter is now priced at $20/month. If you are grandfathered in at a lower price, nothing changes for you, ever. Every 100 subscribers we raise the price by $5. No more lifetime plan, unless you had one before. Maybe we will figure something out in the future with Substack. I’m talking to them.
Started working on creating mini-quant-hyper-niched newsletters. Would you like to read a micro-newsletter with analysis’ similar to the one on the top of the post on NVIDIA but on futures or commodities or single stocks?
The Poll
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Let’s go on with the newsletter:
S&P500 Heatmap
Biggest Gainers This Week
Biggest Losers This Week
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And, as always — stay informed — and do your own due dilligence,
Jack from The Daily Moat
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