🩻 24th week of 2024. AVGO, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT carry the market. Very important information for anyone who owns NVIDIA stock and a complete revamp of the newsletter!

Hello friends,

We’re back with new unbiased data for this week of the US stock market.

If you like my writing, please consider liking and restacking this post!

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NVIDIA did +9.09% this week. It was the biggest company in the world by market cap at one point this week. Crazy stuff, considering their fundamentals.

If you own any NVIDIA stock, I urge you to read my conclusions in the premium section of the newsletter.

AVGO +23.35%, ADBE 12.87%, ORCL 9.70%, AAPL +7.92%, MSFT +4.42%.

The made-up tech companies that don’t solve any problems(AI) are carrying half of the whole stock market. It’s not healthy.

Last day in the S&P500

The current stock market is heavily reliant on a few overvalued tech companies, making it vulnerable. The Buffett Indicator shows the market is significantly overvalued with a total market cap to GDP ratio of about 190%, indicating an expected annual return of just 0.1%, including dividends.

The total market cap over GDP plus Federal Reserve assets ratio is around 150%, suggesting an annual return of 0.5%. This emphasizes the unsustainable weight of tech giants like Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet in driving market valuations.

These companies' dominance highlights the market's fragility and the need for cautious investment strategies. There might be a strong correction coming very soon.

Today’s extras in the premium section

• My predictions about NVIDIA. Insane stuff is happening.

• Totally new super cool data directly from my quant systems — 100% actionable advice that even complete beginners can apply.

This week’s developments

• The Stock Insider ETF has been fully-tested and is ready to be launched. We will launch at a strategic moment in time. As I said above, I believe a strong market correction is coming. I’m taking my gains — moving a lot of my assets into cash and bonds before investing again. This is how I trade. I’ve made almost 80% in the last 12 months.

• I talked to a lot of premium subscribers and the prevailing sentiment is that the data in the premium section was too advanced and not actionable enough. So I’m changing everything this week:

  • I will focus, as much as possible, on listing stocks that my quant systems are detecting as undervalued — so that the retail investor — you — can get the information that you need to make educated choices backed by data.

  • There will be picks for both short-term and long-term investors. Clearly indicated.

  • Everything will be explained like we’re five — ELI5. We even have a banner for it:

So all of this data is new:

More Suitable for Short-Term Investors:

• Best Sales Price Stocks: Stocks priced low relative to their sales, ideal for quick gains if undervaluation corrects.

• Best Book Value Stocks: Stocks priced low relative to their book value, offering short-term opportunities if market conditions improve.

• Reliable High Dividend Earners: While dividends are a long-term income strategy, high yields can attract short-term investors looking for immediate income.

• Insider-Favored Low Price Stocks (Stocks That Are at 1-Year lows, Owned by Analysts/Institutional/Congress/Senate/Insiders): Stocks near their 1-Year lows with insider buying can offer short-term gains if a recovery happens soon.

• Insider-Favored High Price Stocks (Stocks That Are at 1-Year highs, Owned by Analysts/Institutional/Congress/Senate/Insiders): These are likely to be momentum plays, which can be good for short-term trading.

The last two typically indicate massive upwards momentum. Nancy Pelosi and Donald Trump are not typically buying losers.

More Suitable for Long-Term Investors:

• Reliable Value Finds: Focuses on stable, undervalued companies with consistent earnings.

• Top Trusted Value Picks: Highlights high-quality companies with significant competitive advantages.

• Smart Growth Stocks: Targets companies with excellent earnings yield and return on capital for growth.

• Steady Performer Stocks: Emphasizes low volatility stocks for stability and reliability.

This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever even though it's not Black Friday?

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My company is tracking over 2,000 tickers over 1B market cap daily traded in the US which we’re analyzing, in depth, using both quantitative systems and professional review.

We are using tools that cost $30k+/month to bring this data to you.

If we ever launch more newsletters, you will always find them at DailyMoat.com

Let’s move on with the newsletter:

S&P500 Heatmap for the last week

Heatmap explained

Excel data

Please send feedback and ideas using comments or email. I answer emails personally.

And, as always — stay informed — and do your own due diligence,

Jack from The Daily Moat

Below is the data for premium members, the data that allowed us to beat the stock market for over a decade. Cheers!