Tomorrow’s Fed Reveal: The TLT Turning Point (Treasury Bond)
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Key points:
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Advanced technical analysis
Catching significant whale trades and anomalies
The Data on TLT 0.00%↑ for Tomorrow:
TLT Forecast for the FOMC Announcement (December 18, 2024) TL;DR:
Key Event Details
Fed Decision: Wednesday, December 18, 2024 at 2:00 PM ET
Press Conference: Jerome Powell at 2:30 PM ET
Focus: Potential 2024 interest rate cuts, following a series of 2022–2023 hikes.
Hard Data & Market Context
TLT Price (12/17 Close): ~$90.69
Today’s Volume: ~30M shares (3-month average ~43–44M/day)
Options Flow (12/17): Net premiums: -$2.44M, Calls: 25%, Puts: 75%
Largest Put Trade Today: ~$357K premium, Strike $84, Exp. June 2025
Historical Fed Day Moves (Last 3 Meetings): ±1.0%–1.5% next-day median move for TLT
Interest Rate Futures: ≥50% probability of a 25bps cut by mid-2024
Support & Resistance: Support ~ $90.00; Resistance ~ $93.00–$94.00
Advanced Analysis
Historically, TLT reacts positively if the Fed signals clearer easing paths. With put-heavy flows today, positioning suggests institutions are cautious. However, the rate futures market implies a meaningful chance of a rate cut next year.
Scenario 1: Fed Signals 2024 Rate Cuts
Likely +1%–2% move intraday, targeting ~$93 or slightly higher.Scenario 2: Fed Vague or Hawkish
Potential flat to -2% move, possibly testing high-$80s.
Given current expectations, the bias leans modestly positive if Powell confirms a rate-cut window. But high put volume underscores the uncertainty.
Beginner’s Breakdown
What Is TLT?
TLT tracks long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. If the Fed plans to lower rates, these bonds often become more attractive, and TLT’s price may rise.
What’s Happening Tomorrow?
The Fed will announce its plans on interest rates. The market thinks the Fed might cut rates in 2024, which could boost TLT.
If the Fed Is Positive on Cuts:
TLT could jump about 1–2%. Watch for prices above $93.
If the Fed Stays Neutral:
TLT might not move much or could drop slightly, staying near or below $90.
Key Numbers to Watch
Fed Announcement Time: 2:00 PM ET
Key Price Levels: $90 (support) and $93 (resistance)
Typical Reaction: ±1.0%–1.5% after Fed news
God Bless you and your Families,
Jack Roshi, MIT PhD