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Stuff I Published Last Week:
As Always In The Sunday Report:
I have written a detailed recap of last week’s market, my predictions for next week, and an ELI5 (Explain Me Like I’m 5).
You can also find my typical quant data and the stock insiders’ significant buys/sells with my interpretation.
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S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
Excel data:
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
*Also, by the way, the chart above shows precisely why you need the Premium TradingView plan in your life. Look into this:
📊 SPY: Last Month Recap
Price Action Recap
Over the past month, SPY formed a falling wedge (visible on the 4h chart) as it slipped from local highs near
~607down toward~582.This wedge bottomed out around the December holiday period, forming a higher‐low structure on shorter timeframes.
The latest 1h candles show an attempt to break the wedge’s upper trendline and reclaim the mid‐590s.
Macro Magic Indicator (Leading by 4–7 Days)
The Macro Magic signal turned predominantly red during the December drop, flagging that short‐term momentum was weak.
However, it has started flashing more green recently, suggesting a possible bullish shift in market internals that could accelerate over the coming 4–7 trading days.
On the daily chart, green lines are curling upward while red lines are retreating, indicating an early upturn in momentum.
Key Support & Resistance
Immediate Support: ~
584–585where price has rebounded multiple times.Major Resistance: ~
600–602ceiling, which overlaps with the falling wedge’s apex and prior supply zones.Bearish Invalidations: A fall back under the lower wedge line near
580would negate the bullish wedge thesis and open risk to deeper pullbacks.
Future Outlook
Bullish Scenario:
If SPY maintains a close above the wedge top (~
592–593) and Macro Magic remains green, we could see a swift push toward the psychologically important600+level.Continued momentum may challenge the December highs around
607–608.
Bearish Scenario:
A breakdown below
580would invalidate the wedge breakout, targeting the next major pivot near576or potentially lower if broader market conditions worsen.Macro Magic flipping red again would reinforce downward pressure.
The falling wedge breakout and strengthening Macro Magic tilt the odds toward a near‐term rally.
However, watch for confirmation above key resistance and keep an eye on volatility around the 580 support for signs of a possible fake‐out.
Please send feedback and ideas using comments, PMs, or email. I answer all emails and PMs personally. There is no personal assistant BS here.
And, as always — stay informed — and do your own due diligence,
Jack the Signals Doctor, MIT PhD
Weekly Market Summary: December 30 2024 – January 3, 2025
Executive Summary
U.S. equities closed out 2024 on a mixed note, with late profit-taking in large-cap tech names tempering what had been a stellar annual run for the market. Despite a holiday-shortened week and lighter trading volumes, several key developments caught investors’ attention:
Major Indices: The S&P 500 ended the week down about 0.5%, the Dow slipped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.5%. The smaller-cap Russell 2000 outperformed, gaining roughly 1.1%.
2024 in Review: The S&P 500 posted a gain of over 23% for the full year, marking its second straight year of +20% returns. However, the year-end “Santa Claus Rally” period did not materialize, which—based on historical norms—can occasionally signal bumpy starts to a new year.
Sector Performances: Energy was the clear winner this week (+3.2%) thanks to rising oil prices, while Materials (-2.1%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.5%), and Consumer Staples (-1.4%) lagged.
Macro Data: December’s Chicago PMI undershot expectations, indicating continued weakness in regional manufacturing. November Pending Home Sales beat consensus, but overall housing data remained choppy. Meanwhile, jobless claims declined, reflecting ongoing labor-market tightness.
Key Headlines:
Boeing faced heightened regulatory scrutiny in South Korea after a crash involving a 737-800.
MicroStrategy added to its significant Bitcoin holdings—though BTC retreated slightly from recent highs.
Nvidia remained in focus for its anticipated AI announcements at CES.
Tesla reported solid end-of-year deliveries but still missed some street expectations, igniting a selloff in the stock earlier in the week.
U.S. Steel faced a blocked acquisition from Nippon Steel, underscoring potential trade and national-security concerns.
Apple announced expansions to its Fitness+ platform and iPhone tie-ins while seeing some year-end softness in China demand.
Investors now turn to early 2025 data releases—especially the upcoming December Jobs Report—to gauge the Fed’s evolving stance and to see how quickly the economy might transition out of recent manufacturing softness.
Below, we dive into each day’s market-moving events in more detail.
Detailed Analysis
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