To Smart Investors,
Jack: I’m back with fresh, unbiased data for this week's US stock market.
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Stuff I Published Last Week:
As Always In The Sunday Report:
I have written a detailed recap of last week’s market, my predictions for next week, and an ELI5 (Explain Me Like I’m 5).
You can also find my typical quant data and the stock insiders’ significant buys/sells with my interpretation.
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S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
Excel data:
Our friends at TradingView generated these graphs. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
*Also, the chart above shows precisely why you need the Premium TradingView plan in your life. Plus, being able to monitor 8 graphs simultaneously while running complex indicators on them in parallel. Look into this:
SPY Technical Snapshot
TL;DR: Likely another bearish week.
Recent Price Action (Last Month)
Lower Highs & Lower Lows: SPY has persistently trended downward, breaking multiple short-term support levels. Sellers have dominated price action, reflecting broader market uncertainty.
Short-Lived Rallies: Any intraday pops have run into resistance around the mid/high-570s (on this scale), suggesting a consistent sell-the-rip mentality among larger players.
The Macro Paradox Indicator
4–7 Day Lead: Historically 70–80% accurate, Macro Paradox remains a prime directional cue.
Interpreting Green vs. Red:
Green rising → bullish expectation.
Red rising → bearish expectation.
Current Reading: The green line is moderately rising while red trends lower. This split can signal a near-term relief rally but with a cloud of overarching negativity. The indicator’s forward lead implies we might see another leg down if the green line fails to sustain its climb.
Technical Zones & Targets
Resistance ~580: Repeated failure to close above this zone underscores near-term selling pressure.
Key Support ~560 → 550: If SPY breaches the 560 area, the next significant support cluster appears near the 550 handle. A decisive break there could accelerate downside momentum toward the 530–510 range.
Short-Term Projection: Expect price to test lower support within 1–2 weeks, especially if the Macro Paradox’s partial bullish signal flips back to red dominance.
Strategic Considerations
Cautious Bias: With macro volatility still high and the indicator’s signals partially conflicted, capital preservation may outweigh aggressive positioning.
Potential Reversal: A clear bullish divergence in the Macro Paradox (green spiking, red collapsing) would hint at a durable bottom. Until then, consider bounces as opportunities to reduce risk.
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely educational and not financial advice. Always consider multiple factors and your own risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
*Macro Paradox is available for free here
Please send feedback and ideas using comments, PMs, or email. I answer all emails and PMs personally. There is no personal assistant BS here.
And, as always — stay informed — and do your own due diligence,
With every good wish, I remain
Yours sincerely in Christ,
Dr. Jack Roshi
Applied Mathematics Department, MIT
Lead Quant and Board Member, Sabre Capital Group
Opinions are my own
Executive Summary of Last Week:
U.S. equities endured a sharp sell-off in the first week of March 2025, with major indices recording their worst performance since early September. Mounting tariff uncertainty—especially following President Trump’s announcement of 25% levies on Canadian and Mexican imports—fuelled volatility. China’s retaliatory tariff increases and ongoing concerns over slowing global growth added downward pressure, further rattling markets.
Key highlights:
S&P 500: Fell roughly 3.1% for the week, dropping below its 200-day moving average at times
Nasdaq Composite: Ended down 3.4%, weighed by weakness in semiconductors and large-cap tech
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Decreased 2.3%, erasing most of its year-to-date gains
Tariffs: The U.S. imposed 25% on Canada and Mexico, raised duties on China; subsequent exemptions and delays did little to calm investors
Treasury Yields: The 10-year rose to ~4.32%, while the 2-year hovered around 4.00%, reflecting uneasy sentiment toward potential stagflation
Broader sentiment was also tested by mixed macro data:
Manufacturing: ISM Manufacturing PMI highlighted slowing activity and rising prices
Services: ISM Services PMI continued expanding, but commentary revealed ongoing anxiety around tariffs and government spending cuts
Employment: The labor market showed a modest gain of 151,000 new jobs in February, below some forecasts, as the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%
Internationally, the European Central Bank cut interest rates again amid softening economic growth and heightened geopolitical tension, while China outlined a significant fiscal deficit to support its 5% GDP target against intensifying trade headwinds.
Detailed Day-by-Day Analysis:
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