🩻 Week 11, 2025: Market Meltdown: Crisis or Opportunity?
Discover how last week's correction might be your best chance to invest smartly
To Smart Investors,
Jack: I’m back with fresh, unbiased data for this week's US stock market.
The Important Internal Stuff:
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Stuff I Published Last Week:
As Always In The Sunday Report:
I have written a detailed recap of last week’s market, my predictions for next week, and an ELI5 (Explain Me Like I’m 5).
You can also find my typical quant data and the stock insiders’ significant buys/sells with my interpretation.
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S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
Excel data:
Our friends at TradingView generated these graphs. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
*Also, the chart above shows precisely why you need the Premium TradingView plan in your life. Plus, being able to monitor 8 graphs simultaneously while running complex indicators on them in parallel. Look into this:
SPY Technical Snapshot
Price Action: SPY has retraced roughly 6–7% from its February highs. The daily candles show a series of lower highs and lower lows until recently, where an attempted rebound has formed around the mid-550s.
Macro Paradox Indicator:
Green Line (Bullish Momentum): Currently ticking upwards. When Green trends higher, it typically leads bullish price moves within 2–7 days.
Red Line (Bearish Momentum): Currently moving slightly higher. If Red rises aggressively or crosses above Green, it often anticipates negative shifts.
Historically, Macro Paradox has demonstrated 70–80% accuracy in calling broader market swings. Its short lead time suggests we should see clearer directional confirmation by mid–late week.
Key Technical Levels
Short-Term Resistance: ~570–575. A break above 575 could open the door toward 585–590, where prior distribution and selling pressure resided in late February.
Support/Downside Target: ~545–550 is the first line of defense. Should momentum deteriorate and Red spike above Green, watch for a deeper test around 530–510 (the dotted target zone shown in the chart).
Near-Term Projection
Base Case (Bullish Continuation)
With Green currently above Red and rising, there is a notable chance SPY will climb toward 570+ in the next few sessions. If volume confirms and daily closes remain above the recent pivot (~560), expect a potential rally extending to the high 570s.Alternate Case (Renewed Sell Pressure)
If the Red line accelerates and crosses above Green, or if SPY fails to break 570 with conviction, downside momentum could resume. Any break below 550 would warrant caution, reinforcing the possibility of testing the 530–510 zone.
Conclusion
The Macro Paradox points to a short-term upside bias, but keep a close eye on the interplay between the rising Green and Red lines. A bullish continuation is favored if price action and volumes confirm above 570. However, a sudden spike in Red could undermine the rebound, driving SPY toward lower supports.
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely educational and not financial advice. Always consider multiple factors and your own risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
*Macro Paradox is available for free here
Please send feedback and ideas using comments, PMs, or email. I answer all emails and PMs personally. There is no personal assistant BS here.
And, as always — stay informed — and do your own due diligence,
With every good wish, I remain
Yours sincerely in Christ,
Dr. Jack Roshi
Applied Mathematics Department, MIT
Lead Quant and Board Member, Alpha Capital Group
Opinions are my own
Executive Summary of Last Week:
This week was defined by volatile equity markets, escalating tariff threats, and mixed earnings across key sectors. Major indices entered correction territory amid heightened geopolitical tensions and persistent concerns over inflation. U.S. economic data—while showing a moderation in headline inflation—remained overshadowed by trade disputes and mixed corporate results. Key highlights include:
Market Performance: Major indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow) suffered significant losses, with the S&P 500 slipping into correction territory.
Inflation & Yields: U.S. CPI and PPI data indicate slower headline inflation; however, core measures remain elevated. Treasury yields fluctuated as investors oscillated between risk-on and risk-off positions.
Geopolitical/Tariff Tensions: President Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals—especially the threat of a 200% tariff on European beverage imports—coupled with retaliatory actions from Canada and the EU, compounded market uncertainty.
Corporate Developments: Mixed earnings from marquee names were in focus. Defense titans like Lockheed Martin and RTX benefited from Europe’s defense spending surge, while technology and communications faced headwinds amid evolving strategic and regulatory challenges.
Detailed Day-by-Day Analysis:
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