⭐️ Week 12, 2025: Buffett’s Bold Bet: Is a Market Crash Coming?
Berkshire’s Massive Rebalancing May Signal a Major Shift—Read the Details!
To Smart Investors,
Jack: I’m back with fresh, unbiased data for this week's US stock market.
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Stuff I Published Last Week:
As Always In The Sunday Report:
I have written a detailed recap of last week’s market, my predictions for next week, and an ELI5 (Explain Me Like I’m 5).
You can also find my typical quant data and the stock insiders’ significant buys/sells with my interpretation.
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S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
Excel data:
Our friends at TradingView generated these graphs. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
*Also, the chart above shows precisely why you need the Premium TradingView plan in your life. Plus, being able to monitor 8 graphs simultaneously while running complex indicators on them in parallel. Look into this:
SPY Technical Snapshot
Over the last month, SPY retreated from the mid-580s down toward 555, then entered a brief consolidation around 560–565. Despite some rebound attempts, recent candles show relatively muted volatility, suggesting the market is awaiting a catalyst.
Key Levels & Patterns
Resistance: 570–575. A clear break above 575 could unlock further upside momentum.
Support: 555–560. A drop below 555 heightens the risk of testing deeper levels (e.g., 540s).
Rising Wedge Target: There remains a strong $507 target stemming from a larger rising wedge formation. If the wedge fails definitively, 507 could become a magnet for price over the medium term.
Macro Paradox Hints
Green is inching higher, signaling a possible short-term bullish phase.
Red is also creeping upward, hinting at latent bearish pressures that could intensify.
The Bigger Picture
Technical analysis alone won’t guarantee clarity—especially after significant events last week that could swiftly shift market sentiment.
Policy changes, earnings shocks, or geopolitical tensions might override any chart-based signal.
Bottom Line for Stakeholders
Near-Term: Potential for a mild move higher if SPY can crack above 570, but caution is warranted with the red line rising.
Mid-Term: Keep the $507 wedge target on your radar should downside momentum gain traction.
Strategy: Maintain disciplined stops and stay alert for any fresh macro catalysts that could flip the market narrative. Shareholders may demand visible progress, but preserving capital in a volatile backdrop remains critical.
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely educational and not financial advice. Always consider multiple factors and your own risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
*Macro Paradox is available for free here
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And, as always — stay informed — and do your own due diligence,
With every good wish, I remain
Yours sincerely in Christ,
Jack Roshi
Applied Mathematics Department, MIT
Lead Quant and Board Member, Alpha LLPOpinions are my own
Executive Summary of Last Week:
The week ending March 21, 2025, saw U.S. markets stage a modest rebound despite persistent headwinds.
Major indexes—led by the DJIA, up 1.2%—managed to claw back after a series of losses, even as the Federal Reserve maintained rates at 4.25–4.50% while flagging potential cuts later this year.
Mixed economic data, including underwhelming retail sales and surprising strength in housing activity, underscored the tension between slowing growth and stubborn inflation.
Meanwhile, European markets continued their strong year‐to‐date performance, and corporate actions like accelerated share buybacks and strategic portfolio shifts hinted at deeper realignments amid global uncertainty.
Detailed Day-by-Day Analysis:
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