⭐️ Week 13, 2025: The Financial Revolution Is Here. 24 Hours Left!
Also, Tariff Terror Hits Wall Street!
To Smart Investors,
Jack: I’m back with fresh, unbiased data for this week's US stock market.
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Stuff I Published Last Week:
As Always In The Sunday Report:
I have written a detailed recap of last week’s market, my predictions for next week, and an ELI5 (Explain Me Like I’m 5).
You can also find my typical quant data and the stock insiders’ significant buys/sells with my interpretation.
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S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
Our friends at TradingView generated these graphs. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
*Also, the chart above shows precisely why you need the Premium TradingView plan in your life. Plus, being able to monitor 8 graphs simultaneously while running complex indicators on them in parallel. Look into this:
SPY Technical Snapshot
SPY Elliott Wave & Macro Paradox Analysis
Current Context:
SPY has completed a sizable drop (labeled
(a)on the chart) from the 600 region down to the 550s.A brief counter-trend rally (wave
(b)) appears to have stalled under the key Fibonacci retracements at0.421 (≈576),0.5 (≈581), and0.618 (≈589).The Macro Paradox indicator (green = bullish, red = bearish) is turning increasingly red and upward, traditionally signaling downside pressure over the next 2–7 days.
Heightened volatility is expected, given new trade tariffs with China and ongoing market uncertainty.
Elliott Wave Projections
Wave
(a): First leg down, completed near555–550.Wave
(b): Corrective bounce targeting0.421–0.618retracements (approx.576–589). Recent price action suggests it may have failed to break these crucial Fibonacci levels.Wave
(c):Potential targets in the
537(0.618 extension) and512(1.0 extension) zones.These levels reflect standard extension ratios for a typical ABC pattern and should be viewed as primary downside objectives if support near current lows fails.
Macro Paradox Indicator & Bearish Sentiment
Macro Paradox is flashing a bearish cross (red line ascending, green line descending), historically a strong signal for further weakness.
While no indicator is perfect, this one leads the SPY by roughly 2–7 days and has been consistently accurate ~75% of the time.
The ongoing trade tariff news feeds into market jitters, magnifying volatility and risk aversion.
Technical Conclusion
Short-Term: Expect continued downward pressure toward
537. A deeper leg to512remains on the table if selling accelerates or if geopolitical concerns intensify.Upside Invalidation: A decisive break above ~
589(the 0.618 fib retracement) would invalidate the immediate bearish wave structure and could trigger a short-squeeze rally.
With shareholders demanding progress and the Macro Paradox still pointing down, the defensive approach is to monitor how SPY reacts around these key Fibonacci levels. If the (c) wave extends fully, 512 could be the point of capitulation and potential rebound.
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely educational and not financial advice. Always consider multiple factors and your own risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
*Macro Paradox is available for free here
Please send feedback and ideas using comments, PMs, or email. I answer all emails and PMs personally. There is no personal assistant BS here.
And, as always—stay informed—and do your own due diligence.
With every good wish, I remain
Yours sincerely in Christ,
Jack Roshi
Applied Mathematics Department, MIT
Lead Quant and Board Member, Alpha LLPOpinions are my own
Executive Summary of Last Week:
This week’s markets were defined by heightened volatility driven by tariff uncertainty, deteriorating consumer sentiment, and persistent inflation pressures.
Early optimism fueled a strong start on Monday, but mounting concerns—sparked by looming auto tariffs and a sharp decline in consumer confidence—triggered a midweek reversal.
U.S. equity indexes closed the week in negative territory, with value stocks outperforming growth.
Safe-haven assets like gold continued to rally, underscoring investors’ flight from risk amid an uncertain economic outlook.
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Detailed Day-by-Day Analysis:
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