To Smart Investors,
The Most Important Stuff:
Jack’s notes for this week:
My second book will be available this week to all paying and lifetime users! A companion to my first book.
Lifetime subscriptions are back and, hopefully, here to stay. Explanation:
I stopped offering Lifetimes because Substack doesn’t like them. How do they express it? They stopped counting Lifetime subscriptions to recurring revenue, and my Substack immediately dropped from the financial Leaderboard from position #23 to #127. I was getting about 15k free subscribers converting really well from the Leaderboard every month. I need new subscribers to cover the costs of infrastructure, my employees, contractors, and myself.
Turns out 85% of my subscribers were Lifetime subscribers. And I got hundreds of messages from new potential customers saying that they don’t want to pay annual fees and have another financial Netflix. You want to pay once, use forever. Fair enough, I want the same. I think Lifetime deals are the best pricing solutions for Online services. Monthly fees really do stack up.
So, I’m bringing the Lifetimes back, and screw the Leaderboard. We will go all in on promotions on Social Media platforms, as well as other newsletters via sponsorships, notes, ads, and financial browse page, among other methods. I know what to do.
Now, about the stock scanner, which is now called the Stock Arbitrage Scanner:
We’ve been working hard all month on it.
It’s finished.
The first few expert users are beta-testing it to identify and eliminate the last bugs.
It should be available to everyone end of this week. I will notify you.
My health problems last week delayed everything. I appreciate all the amazing emails with prayers and kind words.
I felt bad because I was delaying the release of this tool, but because of it, I gathered a month of live dark pool data, and I realized they are erasing historical data from certain APIs, and I made a groundbreaking discovery when it comes to identifying long-term institutional stock picks.
I have solved all the major problems we had:
It will not be possible for quant firms to reverse engineer my “secret sauce.”
We will be able to have more than 1,000 users. Even having 10,000 users will not threaten the effectiveness of this method. Obviously, I cannot reveal the details, but I had a revelation, perhaps one of the biggest in my quant career.
It’s by far the simplest and best financial tool on the Internet. Believe me, I’ve seen them all.
You will receive an email once it’s 100% ready.
My Stock Arbitrage Scanner predicted the market crash 2 weeks before it happened:
That is exactly what I was doing at Knight Capital Group.
As always, no discounts. The price only goes up as I release new tools and eBooks.
All prior memberships include new SaaS tools (an options scanner, an undervalued stocks detector based on fundamentals, and another secret tool), 12 eBooks, and more. These will be released over the next 12 months. The books are already written and are being edited by a NY Times Best Seller editor.
Listen to today’s free weekly Podcast here:
Stuff We Published Last Week:
As Always In The Sunday Report:
I have written a detailed recap of last week’s market, my predictions for next week, and an ELI5 (Explain Me Like I’m 5).
You can also find my typical quant data and the stock insiders’ significant buys/sells with my interpretation.
Every day, I post summaries of news relevant to Investors. I try to post about 30 minutes before the markets open and cover the last 24 hours of news. On the weekends, I post in the afternoon.
This daily newsletter is read by decision-makers at companies ranging from Berkshire Hathaway, Citadel, and BlackRock, Inc. employees to the oil traders in the Emirates and Saudi Arabia and back to Alphabet in Mountain View, California, Apple, and NVIDIA.
These news are instrumental to my success.
$5/month — less than the cost of a Starbucks latte.
We recently crossed 1,000 paying subscribers 🙏🙏🙏
S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
SPY
Our friends at TradingView generated these graphs. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
*Also, the chart above shows precisely why you need the Premium TradingView plan in your life. Plus, being able to monitor 8 graphs simultaneously while running complex indicators on them in parallel. Look into this:
SPY — 30‑Day Pulse Check
SPY’s post-tariff purge is already yesterday’s news: price has clawed back to $550 and momentum is leaning north thanks to a steeply rising green Macro Paradox line. Expect one more thrust into the 556-560 resistance shelf before bulls meet serious push-back from rich valuations and the ever-present tariff trip-wire.
Price Action Snapshot (Past Month)
Tariff shock: Trump’s blanket import duties (announced 8 Apr) triggered a two-day, high-volume dump that sliced ~7 % off SPY and bottomed near 510.
Rescue rally: Relief headlines plus forced short-covering produced three straight upside gaps (23-25 Apr), yanking price back above the 20- and 50-day averages and out of “correction” territory.
Current tape: Candles are kissing the lower edge of the 556-565 congestion zone carved out pre-tariff. Volume has tailed off but remains above its 30-day mean—suggesting fuel is left for one more push.
Macro Paradox Signal
Green line 83 and rising = positive impulse expected to carry 2-7 trading days.
Red line flat at 46 = bearish pressure cooling.
Hit-rate context: Your back-tests show a 70-80 % probability of a positive “broad move” when green lifts above 70 with red below 50, so the base case is follow-through into resistance before any stall.
Tariff Overhang
2018 steel/aluminum duties lopped 3-4 % off the S&P inside three sessions, and the aftermath capped rallies for months.
10 Apr replay: news-flow around fresh tariffs ignited another >3 % one-day swoon. Headlines can (and likely will) flip intraday; plan for headline-risk not fundamentals.
Valuation & Seasonal Context
Forward P/E hovers near 19–20—above the 10-year average—leaving little air-pocket if earnings are clipped by tariff-induced margin pressure.
“Sell in May” still matters: the median May draw-down in mid-cycle years is ~-3 %, and tariff regimes have historically amplified that weakness.
Forward Playbook (4-Week Horizon)
Base case (≈60 %) – Macro Paradox drives SPY to test 556-560. Trim longs into that shelf; roll call strikes higher rather than chasing delta.
Headline relapse (≈25 %) – Trade rhetoric reignites, SPY dives toward 525 support. Deploy put spreads or grab delta-hedged long stock near that level.
Breakout (≈15 %) – Clean tariff de-escalation unlocks 565+. Ride momentum but trail stops tight; valuation ceiling closes fast above 575.
Risk management: Keep stops just under 525; stay hedged with June 520-500 put spreads until tariff dust settles. That delivers tangible progress the board can measure—no fluff, just disciplined execution.
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely educational and not financial advice. Always consider multiple factors and your own risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
*Macro Paradox is available for free here
Please send feedback and ideas using comments, PMs, or email. I answer all emails and PMs personally. There is no personal assistant BS here.
And, as always—stay informed—and do your own due diligence.
With every good wish, I remain
Yours sincerely in Christ,
Jack Roshi
Applied Mathematics Department, MIT
Lead Quant and Board Member, Alpha LLPOpinions are my own
Executive Summary of Last Week:
Tech-Led Rally: After a bruising Monday (S&P futures down 1.4%, Nasdaq futures down 1.6%), mega-cap tech and AI names powered a furious rebound. The S&P 500 climbed 4.6% for the week, Nasdaq surged 6.7%, and the Dow added 2.5%.
Tariffs & Fed Drama: President Trump’s flirtation with firing Fed Chair Powell and shifting tone on China tariffs swung sentiment intraday. Once Powell’s job was declared safe and tariff de-escalation hinted, stocks ripped higher.
Yields & Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield peaked near 4.59% mid-April, then fell to ~4.26% by week’s end as equities rallied and recession fears crept in.
Mixed Data: U.S. PMI hit a 16-month low (51.2 composite), consumer sentiment slid to 52.2, and March durable goods orders were buoyed by aircraft orders.
Key Themes:
AI Arms Race: Huawei’s Ascend 910C vs. Nvidia H100; Nvidia export licenses looming.
Autonomy on the Move: Tesla’s robotaxi tests and Waymo personal-ownership plans steal headlines.
Crypto & Commodities: Bitcoin jumped ~12% to ~$87.4K; gold briefly topped $3,400/oz.
M&A & Buybacks: ASML upsized its buyback, Toyota eyes $42 billion supplier deal.
Please subscribe to my Substack to access the premium report, which includes a comprehensive day‐by‐day breakdown, in‐depth weekly analysis, a list of the most shorted stocks, Excel spreadsheets of options flow, the most active stocks, projections for the next week, and insider trades and their interpretation.
Detailed Day-by-Day Analysis:
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