đ©» Week 3, 2025: 5 Sectors Set to ExplodeâAre You Positioned?
From Financials to Tech: Surprising Data Fueling the Upswing
To Smart Investors,
Weâre back with fresh, unbiased data for this week's US stock market.
Super Important Stuff!
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The SaaS focused on long-term plays is coming out within a month of the beta version (included in the subscription).
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Stuff I Published Last Week:
As Always In The Sunday Report:
I have written a detailed recap of last weekâs market, my predictions for next week, and an ELI5 (Explain Me Like Iâm 5).
You can also find my typical quant data and the stock insidersâ significant buys/sells with my interpretation.
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S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
Excel data:
This graphs was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
*Also, by the way, the chart above shows precisely why you need the Premium TradingView plan in your life. Look into this:
SPY Technical & Macro Paradox Analysis
Recent Price Action
Last Month: SPY has formed a classic Head & Shoulders pattern (see chart annotations):
Left Shoulder around mid-November highs
A Head in early December
Right Shoulder in late December to early January
Neckline: Roughly in the mid-580s, which price briefly broke below before a mild recovery.
Despite the initial breakdown, SPY has bounced back toward the 600 zone.
Macro Paradox Indicator
Green (Bullish): Trending upward when markets are poised to move higher.
Red (Bearish): Rising indicates downside pressure on the SPY.
The indicator tends to lead actual price by 4â7 days, with ~70â80% accuracy in signaling broad market direction.
Currently:
The Green line has turned slightly down from its peak, but remains above the Red line.
The Red line is curling higher off its lows.
This setup often signals a tug-of-war between short-term bullish continuation and an emerging overhead bearish pressure.
Projections & Key Levels
Upside Scenario
If SPY closes above the 600â605 resistance zone on strong volume, it could invalidate the Head & Shoulders pattern.
Potential target: near 615â620 if momentum persists.
Downside Scenario
A renewed break below 585 would confirm further weakness.
The Head & Shoulders measured move implies a potential drop toward the 550 areaâand possibly 500 if selling accelerates.
Summary
Short-Term: Modest bullish bias as long as price remains above 585.
Intermediate-Term: Head & Shoulders structure warns of deeper downside if SPY fails to hold above its neckline.
Macro Paradox: Mixed signals (Green flattening, Red rising) suggest the current bounce may be fragile, hinting at a possible downturn within ~1 week if bears regain traction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely educational and not financial advice. Always consider multiple factors and your own risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
*Macro Paradox is available for free here
Please send feedback and ideas using comments, PMs, or email. I answer all emails and PMs personally. There is no personal assistant BS here.
And, as always â stay informed â and do your own due diligence,
May the LORD Bless You and Your Loved Ones,
Jack Roshi, PhD, MIT, Applied Mathematics
Weekly Market Recap
Executive Summary
U.S. equity markets rebounded strongly for the week of January 13â17, driven by cooler-than-anticipated inflation data (notably the December CPI and PPI releases), surprisingly strong bank earnings, and improved risk sentiment. The S&P 500 gained nearly 3%âits best weekly performance since Novemberâwhile Treasuries rallied on signs that inflationary pressures may be easing. Financials and energy shares led the advance, and value stocks outperformed growth. Notably:
Bank earnings from major players like JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo exceeded lofty expectations, supporting a surge in the financials sector.
Inflation readings (CPI and PPI) came in below consensus on a monthly basis, fueling hopes that the Federal Reserve can continue cutting rates in 2025.
Tech megacaps were volatile but ended the week mostly higher; cyclical areas outperformed defensives.
Treasury yields declined sharply, with the 10-year note dropping from around 4.80% to 4.61%.
Below is the detailed day-by-day narrative of what happened in the markets, which dives deeply into the news catalysts, economic data, and individual stock moves.
The five sectors looking at significant growth are:
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