Week 36, 2024: NVIDIA at -14% This Week! Broadcom -15%! Tech Sector Falling. What Happens Next?
An unexpected move by the Fed or ECB could cause significant market disruption.
Hello Investors,
We’re back with fresh, unbiased data for this week in the US stock market.
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This week’s podcast is here:
Important Announcements:
The Tesla Giveaway livestream and the donation to Doctors Without Borders will be broadcasted in the middle of the 3rd week of September. I’m still testing everything out and confirming stuff with the lawyers so that we don’t have any slip ups.
I have published my first simple, yet effective 2-ETF portfolio last week and I will be publishing a more complex ETF on Wednesday.
Over the next 3 months I will be revealing a dozen different ETF portfolios. I believe some of them will totally blow your mind.
Today I have also written a deep dive on last week’s market recap and my predictions for the next week including a potential “black swans” section.
You can also find my typical quant data and the stock insiders’ significant buys/sells with my interpretation.
I started hiring a team and really focusing full-time on Substack. This is our newest addition which you might find very helpful when it comes to investing money:
Yesterday’s news: Anti-Clickbait News Summaries for September 7, 2024.
Today’s news: Anti-Clickbait News Summaries for September 8, 2024.
I will publish these daily around 2-3pm West Coast time.
I’m also thinking about making a separate daily anti-clickbait newsletter strictly about Technology. Good idea or not?
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10-year performance of Fortress of Solitude portfolio
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S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
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Excel data:
How Spy is Looking Over The Last Month
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Quick Breakdown
Rising Wedge Pattern:
A rising wedge, especially in conjunction with declining volume (if available), is a leading indicator for a breakdown, aligning with historical probabilities that favor a bearish outcome upon a wedge's resolution.
Post-Wedge Breakdown:
The magnitude of the downward move post-breakdown suggests a shift in market structure, with momentum models likely flagging increasing downside risk. The velocity of the decline post-wedge validates the reliability of the wedge as a reversal pattern.
Cloud Indicator:
The position of the price relative to the cloud suggests that trend-following models would likely signal short positions, as the price is below key trend levels. Further, the cloud's slope and width imply a strengthening bearish trend.
Target and Price Action:
The projection toward the 536 level could align with mean reversion models or support-based trading strategies. Should the price approach this level, we would anticipate a potential deceleration of the downward trend, offering a high-probability region for short covering or entry into counter-trend positions.
Overall Sentiment and Quantitative Risk Assessment:
Volatility-adjusted risk metrics (such as Sharpe ratio adjustments for downward trends) would likely favor hedging strategies or increased short exposure. Additionally, my machine learning pattern recognition systems could use this setup to anticipate continued declines until a more substantial support level is reached.
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And, as always — stay informed — and do your own due diligence,
Jack from the Daily Moat
Market Recap: September 2-6, 2024 and Predictions for Next Week:
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