Week 38, 2024: I Donated $50k to Doctors Without Borders on Friday – A Big Part of my Substack Income, Telegram Channel is Almost Here, Fed Cut Flips Stuff Up
Doctors Without Borders
Hello Investors,
We’re back with fresh, unbiased data for this week in the US stock market.
This is not an advertisement, as I don’t do sponsporships for money, unless it’s a tool that I personally use.
Last week, my buddy, a fellow Substacker – The Hermit – sent me this message:
Him: Jack, as you know I’ve been grinding hard on my Substack and made a great call last week with PLCE 0.00%↑ - got short squeezed and ended up 3x’ing my investment (it was 8% of the portfolio) in just two weeks. The whole process is logged, I wonder what you think about it.
Well, I think what he’s doing there is top-level, and I urge you to analyze his thought process on investments.
This week’s podcast is here:
My podcast will be free forever.
Starting next week I will also be covering financial education and singlurar events in separate episodes.
This is What Everyone Was Waiting For
Since it looks like the recession is not coming this year, and I know many of you want the signals, I’m plugging in my quant indicator system and will start a Telegram channel with signals within the next 10-20 days.
It is not a simple ATR or momentum based system. It’s deep learning + taking into account 5 complex indicators.These will be medium-term swing trades.
Using these I have been able to take almost 20% profit over a month like shown here.
Everyone will be notified about it by email.
Lifetime price will go WAY up once this is online.
Other Important Announcements:
I have published my 3-ETF Diversified Bitcoin/Blockchain/Tech portfolio last week that got great responses from my readers:
I published a controversial piece on why I rent and not own real estate:
The Tesla Giveaway video will be posted next week due to lawyer stuff. Subscribers’ privacy is very important to me and I also don’t want to get sued or break any laws.
Today I have also written a deep dive on last week’s market recap and my predictions for the next week.
You can also find my typical quant data and the stock insiders’ significant buys/sells with my interpretation.
Every day I am posting summaries of news that are relevant for investors. I try to post about 30 minutes before the markets open and cover the last 24 hours of news. On the weekends I post in the afternoon.
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10-year performance of Fortress of Solitude portfolio
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S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
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Excel data:
How Spy is Looking Over The Last Month
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SPY Analysis: September 2024
Overview: Performance of SPY (S&P 500 ETF Trust)
Over the past month, SPY has exhibited significant volatility reflecting the FED rate cuts.
Detailed Breakdown
Rectangle Pattern Formation:
Support was held around the $550 mark, while resistance capped prices near $570. This consolidation hints at market participants waiting for a clearer signal on economic data or broader market direction before committing capital.
The breakout from the consolidation zone, indicated by a strong move above $570, led to a swift upward movement towards the $590 range, marking a target zone for short-term traders following the rectangle breakout.
Reversal Signals:
Quant Reversal Detector flagged significant buy and sell points, which aligned closely with price peaks and troughs. These reversal signals are crucial for swing traders, highlighting optimal entry and exit points based on recent market movements.
August Downtrend:
The downtrend that dominated early August, pushing prices from $568 to $544, was largely driven by concerns surrounding interest rate hikes and macroeconomic tightening. This bearish momentum reversed sharply as SPY formed a W-pattern in September, signaling the possibility of a medium-term bottom.
Projections for October 2024
Short-Term Outlook:
The break above $570 is a bullish signal, suggesting that the market has digested recent macro concerns. Given this breakout, we anticipate a potential move towards the $590 target, where we might encounter the next significant resistance.
Support should hold around $560, providing a reasonable entry point for swing traders if the price revisits this zone.
Medium-Term Outlook:
As global central banks continue to assess inflationary pressures, market direction will depend heavily on upcoming economic data. Should inflation ease, and interest rate hikes slow, we could see SPY retesting its all-time highs near $600.
In the short term, SPY 0.00%↑ presents an optimistic scenario with upside potential following the rectangle breakout. However, traders should stay vigilant, as broader economic uncertainty can introduce renewed volatility. The key levels to watch:
Support: $560
Resistance: $590 (target)
Please send feedback and ideas using comments, PMs, or email. I answer all emails and PMs personally. No personal assistant BS here.
And, as always — stay informed — and do your own due diligence,
Jack Roshi from the Daily Moat
Market Recap: September 16-20, 2024 and Predictions for Next Week:
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