Week 42, 2024: Semiconductor Shake-Up: How New Restrictions Affect Traders?
Tesla and Amazon Set to Report—Implications for Tech Sector
To Smart Investors,
We’re back with fresh, unbiased data for this week in the US stock market.
The Telegram Signals channel has been running for two weeks. Although it's too early to present official performance charts, I'm getting messages from people saying they're making profits that significantly outperform SPY. 😇
I will be showing monthly charts and performance comparisons with SPY every month, starting in 2 weeks.
The free weekly Podcast is here:
A New Bombshell is Coming to All Subscribers…
Unique Product in TradingView: Introducing My Custom Signals Indicator
I'm thrilled to announce my product that we are developing right in TradingView! Together with a team of three talented developers, I'm bringing you a custom Signals Indicator that's 99% identical to the one I used at the hedge fund where I made over 200% in a year.
The indicator will have alerts for Buys, Sells, Stop Losses and Take Profits.
This powerful tool is scheduled for release in approximately 2-3 weeks and will be available exclusively to my paying subscribers.
The Signals Indicator will be compatible with all timeframes and financial instruments where technical analysis is applicable. Whether you're trading stocks, forex, commodities like oil, or indices like SPY 0.00%↑ , this indicator will empower you to make more informed trading decisions directly within the TradingView platform.
Please note, you will be required to have a TradingView subscription to use this indicator, but you can get 60% off here.
Limited-Time Lifetime Pricing
To celebrate these monumental developments, I'm extending the current lifetime subscription price of $500 until the Signals Indicator is officially launched.
After the release, the lifetime price will increase to $2,000.
This is a unique opportunity to secure lifetime access to all our premium offerings—including the new Signals Indicator and our exclusive Telegram channel—at the current rate.
Other Important Announcements:
On Wednesday I will publish another ETF portfolio related to Nuclear Energy, Uranium, etc. 😎
Last week I published my Adapted All-Weather ETF Portfolio:
As always, I have also written a deep dive on last week’s market recap, my predictions for the next week, and an ELI5 (Explain Me like I’m 5).
You can also find my typical quant data and the stock insiders’ significant buys/sells with my interpretation.
Every day I am posting summaries of news that are relevant for investors. I try to post about 30 minutes before the markets open and cover the last 24 hours of news. On the weekends I post in the afternoon.
Today’s news:
10-year performance of Fortress of Solitude portfolio
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever even though it's not Black Friday?
S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever even though it's not Black Friday?
Excel data:
SPY in the last weeks
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever even though it's not Black Friday?
📊 SPY Analysis - The Last Month and Future Projections
🔍 Key Observations (SPY - 30-Min Chart)
Triangle Formation:
Over the past month, SPY has been consolidating within a large symmetrical triangle pattern. This signifies indecision between buyers and sellers, where the volatility shrinks as the range narrows. Traditionally, this setup anticipates a breakout (either bullish or bearish), and we are now seeing evidence of that breakout.Rising Wedge:
After the breakout from the triangle, the price formed a rising wedge—an important reversal pattern. While the wedge is rising, it is a bearish structure indicating that the rally might lose momentum soon.Buy Signals:
Several buy signals from my indicator have appeared at key breakout points. These signals aligned with breaks of trendlines and moving average resistance levels, suggesting short-term bullish sentiment, which has been validated with higher highs.Trendline Support:
The upward movement is supported by a trendline starting from the lows near $568. This support has been tested multiple times and remains valid, indicating sustained bullish momentum for now.
🚀 Projections: Bullish but Caution is Needed
📈 Immediate Target:
Following the breakout from the triangle, SPY could potentially hit $587 in the short term. This target coincides with a measured move from the breakout height of the triangle pattern. However, this is close to the upper boundary of the rising wedge, which signals potential exhaustion.⚠️ Reversal Risk:
While we have an immediate bullish outlook, the rising wedge is a concerning development. Once the price approaches the upper $587-$590 range, we may see strong resistance, and a correction back to support levels around $575-$570 is likely. Should the wedge break down, SPY might retest the previous triangle resistance (now acting as support) around $571.
💡 What to Watch For
Volume: The breakout from the triangle has been accompanied by moderate volume. For the rally to be sustainable, we need a spike in volume as SPY nears its target of $587-$590.
Momentum Indicators: A decline in RSI or MACD divergences at these levels could signal the reversal from the rising wedge.
Stop Loss Strategy: It's advisable to maintain stop losses around $574 in case the wedge breaks down, leading to a retest of lower support zones.
Please send feedback and ideas using comments, PMs, or email. I answer all emails and PMs personally. No personal assistant BS here.
And, as always — stay informed — and do your own due diligence,
Jack the Signals Doctor, MIT PhD
Market Recap: October 14 - October 18, 2024 and Predictions for Next Week:
The week ending October 18, 2024, was marked by significant milestones in the global financial markets. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new all-time highs, extending a six-week winning streak. Investor sentiment was bolstered by robust corporate earnings, particularly from technology and financial sectors, and positive economic data indicating strong consumer spending and a stable labor market. However, the semiconductor industry faced headwinds due to potential U.S. export restrictions and company-specific earnings disappointments. Geopolitical developments and central bank policies also played pivotal roles in shaping market dynamics.
Executive Summary:
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