Week 43, 2024: From Tesla’s Surge to Microsoft’s Expansion: Earnings That Matter for Your Portfolio
Anticipating Next Week’s Market Movers: GDP, Jobs Report, and Key Earnings
To Smart Investors,
We’re back with fresh, unbiased data for this week in the US stock market.
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In just three weeks, my Telegram Signals Channel has shown impressive returns, outperforming major U.S. indices. Here’s how it compares:
Telegram Signals: +2.52%
Russell 2000®: -0.19%
S&P 500®: +1.04%
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): -0.52%
NASDAQ: +2.10%
While the Russell 2000 and DJIA have shown slight negative returns, the Telegram Signals have surpassed all of them, with a return of +2.52%, even beating the NASDAQ’s +2.10% gain.
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Other Important Announcements:
This week I will publish a Sector Rotation Strategy ETF portfolio 😎
Last week I published my Energy/Housing/Defense Portfolio:
As always, I have also written a deep dive on last week’s market recap, my predictions for the next week, and an ELI5 (Explain Me like I’m 5).
You can also find my typical quant data and the stock insiders’ significant buys/sells with my interpretation.
Every day, I post summaries of news that are relevant for investors. I try to post about 30 minutes before the markets open and cover the last 24 hours of news. On the weekends, I post in the afternoon.
Today’s news:
10-year performance of Fortress of Solitude portfolio
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S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
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Excel data:
SPY in the last weeks
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📊 SPY Analysis - The Last Month and Future Projections
1. Triangle Formation (Mid-September to Early October)
Pattern: The SPY entered a prolonged symmetrical triangle from mid-September through early October.
Breakout: After consolidating within this triangle, a breakout occurred around October 10, signaling increased bullish momentum.
Buy Signals: Multiple buy signals were triggered near the support lines, providing excellent entry points as the price touched the lower bounds.
2. Rising Wedge Formation (Mid-October)
Pattern: Following the breakout, SPY moved into a rising wedge pattern, characterized by higher highs and higher lows within a narrowing channel.
Implications: Rising wedges often signal potential reversals in bullish trends. Here, the wedge played out with some profit-taking near the resistance line.
Projection: Given the pattern, a bearish breakdown was expected, and indeed, we saw a pullback after reaching the upper bounds.
3. Buy and Sell Zones
Buy Zones: The green-shaded areas within both the triangle and wedge highlight regions where buy signals were triggered. These zones aligned closely with support levels, indicating strong demand.
Sell Zones: Conversely, the red-shaded areas show sell signals. Notice these occurred near resistance levels or after significant price rallies, suggesting overextension and profit-taking.
4. Resistance and Support Levels
Immediate Support: ~$579.00. This level has proven robust in recent sessions and should be closely monitored in case of a pullback.
Primary Resistance: ~$584.00, which aligns with previous highs and was tested during the recent upswing. A break above this could signal a new leg up.
Projected Target: ~$566.00. The green-dotted line suggests a medium-term target on potential downside momentum, especially if SPY fails to hold above the support.
Future Projections
Bullish Scenario
If SPY can sustain above the immediate support level of $579, it may retest the $584 resistance and push toward the upper target of $588.
A successful breach above $588 would likely attract additional buying interest, setting the stage for an extended bullish trend.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, failure to hold $579 could lead to a pullback towards the projected support zone of around $566. This aligns with the bottom of the triangle, which would serve as a strong support but could signal a bearish continuation if breached.
Risk Management
Stop Loss: Given the recent volatility, consider setting tight stop losses near support zones, especially around $579.
Take Profit: Traders might look to take profits near the $584 and $588 resistance levels.
Please send feedback and ideas using comments, PMs, or email. I answer all emails and PMs personally. No personal assistant BS here.
And, as always — stay informed — and do your own due diligence,
Jack the Signals Doctor, MIT PhD
Market Recap: October 21 - October 25, 2024 and Predictions for Next Week:
After several weeks of gains, the U.S. stock market faced selling pressure this week, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average snapping their positive streaks. The S&P 500 closed 1.0% lower, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.7%. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2%, marking its seventh consecutive weekly gain, buoyed by strong performances in technology stocks, particularly Tesla's (TSLA 0.00%↑) robust earnings report and optimistic growth projections.
Executive Summary:
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