🩻 Week 46, 2024: Tech Takes a Hit, Financials Rally: What’s Driving the Sectors?
From Walmart to Palo Alto Networks, this week’s earnings spotlight key sectors
To Smart Investors,
We’re back with fresh, unbiased data for this week's US stock market.
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Today’s news:
10-year performance of Fortress of Solitude portfolio
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S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
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Excel data:
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SPY: A Technical Breakdown for November 📈
📊 Recent Market Structure: A Tactical Review
Over the past month, SPY (S&P 500 ETF) displayed textbook technical setups, reflecting key sentiment shifts. Below is a concise dissection of its price action:
Falling Wedge Breakout
Around October 21, SPY formed a falling wedge, a bullish reversal pattern, triggering a buy signal upon breakout. The move aligned with traditional TA principles, achieving its target with precision.Consolidation into Bullish Pennant
By November 1, price action transitioned into a bullish pennant, characterized by lower volume and tight consolidation following an impulsive move. This breakout confirmed upward momentum, smashing through its 595 resistance zone before retracing.V-Shaped Recovery
Post pullback to the 584 support region, SPY exhibited a classic V-shaped recovery. Notably, multiple buy signals emerged near the base, supported by increasing momentum and robust follow-through to its next key target of 596.
🔍 True Price Indicator Insights
MY proprietary True Price Indicator (TPI) solidifies this analysis, revealing the following layers:
Baseline Value: TPI validated buy signals at significant inflection zones, most notably the wedge breakout and V-recovery.
Projected Targets: Currently, the TPI reflects a fair value range of 593-596, aligning closely with the bullish pennant apex.
⚡ Projections: Where Are We Heading?
Upside Potential
A clean breakout above 596 targets the 600-602 zone, where psychological resistance converges with historical volume profiles.
Momentum is likely to be sustained if the V-shaped recovery trendline holds firm.
Downside Risks
Any sustained breach below 584 may lead to deeper corrections toward 575, coinciding with the next significant demand zone.
Volatility Outlook
Watch for increased intraday volatility driven by macro catalysts (e.g., CPI data, Fed statements).
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And, as always — stay informed — and do your own due diligence,
Jack the Signals Doctor, MIT PhD
Weekly Market Summary: November 11–15, 2024
Executive Summary
The stock market experienced a pullback this week after reaching record highs post-election. The S&P 500 declined by 2.0%, with losses driven by concerns over persistent inflation, rising Treasury yields, and speculation that the Federal Reserve may slow down interest rate cuts. Bitcoin continued its surge, hitting new all-time highs above $90,000. Key sectors affected included technology, health care, and small-cap stocks, while energy and financials showed resilience.
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