🩻 Week 47, 2024: Bitcoin Almost Touching $100k, Record High Corporate Earnings, Strong US Economy Indicators
Will Bitcoin cross the massive psychological resistance point?
To Smart Investors,
We’re back with fresh, unbiased data for this week's US stock market.
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The 20-lesson University-level Hardcore Finance Course. The first 2 lessons are free. The rest will be only available to paying customers. This course is based on the material I taught during my PhD in Applied Mathematics.
The TradingView True Price Indicator, which is 90% accurate in predicting trend reversals, will be released end of Nov/beginning of Dec. (Go here to sign up now, and you will get TradingView 70% off on Black Friday)
The True Price Indicator will be released after ALL backtesting is finished. I don’t want to release a sub-par product. I’m trading using it already, and it works. Please don’t email me daily asking if you can access it earlier. You can’t.
A future secret SaaS product (2025)
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Another sneak-peak at the True Price Indicator:
The Indicator is not doing any repainting.
These are 15 min candles for the last 24 hours on Bitcoin. The Indicator works on all assets and all timeframes.
It sets Take Profits and Stop Losses but will also alert you if it detects an opportunity to sell earlier so that you don’t hit the Stop Loss.
As you can see, it does better than just holding the asset.
Trading using the Indicator gained +2.57%, while holding Bitcoin gained +1.29%.
Nothing is harder to trade than Bitcoin this week; my Indicator detected that dip perfectly.
The Indicator will be in constant development, and these are just some things that I’m planning for the near future:
Shorting (although I don’t recommend it)
Sending automatic signals to brokers supported by TradingView, like Interactive Brokers
MT4 support through a webhook
Strategy for backtesting
Improving the algorithm even more to detect dips and chop better
The free weekly Podcast is here:
Other Important Announcements:
The Signals on the Telegram Channel have improved greatly, and with time, they will align with the Indicator.
I have written 2 free lessons of Hardcore Finance course this week.
I added an FAQ page.
As always, I have also written a deep dive into last week’s market recap, my predictions for the next week, and an ELI5 (Explain Me Like I’m 5).
You can also find my typical quant data and the stock insiders’ significant buys/sells with my interpretation.
Every day, I post summaries of news relevant to Investors. I try to post about 30 minutes before the markets open and cover the last 24 hours of news. On the weekends, I post in the afternoon.
Today’s news:
10-year performance of Fortress of Solitude portfolio
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
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Excel data:
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
SPY Price Action: A High-Level Breakdown
Market Structure Overview (Last Month)
Double Bottom Formation
Key Levels: Bottom 1 and Bottom 2 around $580.
Bullish Reversal: Price action displayed a classic W-shaped recovery, with the neckline breakout triggering upward momentum.
Target Achieved: The measured move from the double-bottom structure aligned with the $590 region.
Bullish Pennant
Formation: Following a strong impulsive move upward, SPY consolidated in a tight range, forming a bullish pennant around $595.
Breakout & Target: The breakout successfully reached the measured move target near $600, fulfilling the bullish continuation scenario.
Double Top Resistance
Key Levels: $597–$600.
Reversal Signals: The market tested this level twice but failed to break higher, forming a double-top structure.
Bearish Target: The potential breakdown aligns with $590 as the short-term downside target.
Current Indicators and Momentum
Short-Term Resistance: SPY remains capped by the $597-$600 range, suggesting exhaustion in buying pressure.
Support Levels: $590 and $585 are critical zones to watch for near-term stability.
Trend Strength: Bullish momentum from the earlier breakout appears to be waning, with oscillators showing divergence near recent highs.
Projections for the Coming Weeks
Bullish Scenario
A break above $600 with strong volume could reignite the bullish trend.First Target: $605
Extended Target: $610
Bearish Scenario
A confirmed breakdown of $590 opens the door to further declines.First Target: $585
Extended Target: $580
Neutral Case
Consolidation within the $590–$600 range, likely as the market digests recent moves.
Actionable Takeaways for Traders
Risk Management: Monitor price action around $590 for potential stop runs and liquidity grabs.
Trade Setup:
Breakout Traders: Wait for $600 confirmation with strong volume for entry.
Swing Traders: Look for short entries below $590 with tight stops above recent highs.
Key Levels to Watch
Support Levels: $590, $585, $580
Resistance Levels: $597–$600, $605, $610
Stay vigilant—volatility remains elevated, and confirmation is key before taking positions.
Please send feedback and ideas using comments, PMs, or email. I answer all emails and PMs personally. No personal assistant BS here.
And, as always — stay informed — and do your own due diligence,
Jack the Signals Doctor, MIT PhD
Weekly Market Summary: November 18–22, 2024
Executive Summary
Global equity markets rebounded the week of November 18, recovering some of the prior week's losses.
Major U.S. indices approached record highs with broad-based gains, driven by strong corporate earnings, robust economic data, and easing geopolitical tensions.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each rose 1.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2%.
Small-cap stocks outperformed, with the Russell 2000 and S&P MidCap 400 gaining 4.5% and 4.2%, respectively, as investors rotated into cyclical sectors.
Key highlights included:
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