🩻 Week 48, 2024: Unpacking the Thanksgiving and Black Friday Market Trends
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S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
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📊 SPY Technical Analysis & Projections
Overview of Key Chart Patterns (30-Minute Timeframe)
Bullish Pennant (Mid-November)
Setup: A strong upward move consolidated into a symmetrical triangle.
Breakout: Confirmed above the upper resistance, hitting the projected target with precision.
Volume Confirmation: Increased volume on the breakout added conviction.
Double Bottom (Early November)
Bottoms: Established a strong support zone near $575-$580.
Breakout: Once the neckline at ~$585 was breached, SPY surged towards its target near $590.
Momentum Shift: This marked a reversal from bearish to bullish momentum.
Rising Wedge (Late November)
Bearish Pattern: Prices consolidated into a narrowing upward channel.
Breakout: A minor bearish divergence in RSI hinted at the breakdown, though buyers regained control quickly.
Indicators at a Glance
Volume Trends:
Volume spikes on pattern breakouts indicate institutional participation.
Weak volume during the wedge's final stages signals hesitation among bulls.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Oscillated near overbought levels during the upward rallies.
Mild bearish divergence observed in the wedge hints at potential short-term exhaustion.
ATR (Average True Range):
Increasing ATR during volatile breakouts suggests strong momentum, while the decreasing ATR in the wedge signals consolidation.
Future Projections
Bullish Scenario:
Key Resistance: $605 is the immediate hurdle. A breakout above this level opens doors to $610-$615.
Catalysts: Sustained bullish momentum could be fueled by macroeconomic optimism or stronger institutional inflows.
Bearish Scenario:
Support Levels: Watch $595 and $585. A breakdown below these levels could trigger a retest of the double bottom support near $575-$580.
Bear Triggers: Any weak economic data or unexpected Fed hawkishness might derail the upward momentum.
Neutral Scenario:
SPY could consolidate between $595-$605, forming a flag or triangle before the next major move.
Actionable Insights
Short-Term Traders:
Use ATR-based stop losses and take-profit targets to capitalize on the current volatility.
Swing Traders:
Look for a confirmed breakout above $605 or a breakdown below $595 to initiate positions.
Investors:
Maintain a cautious stance with partial allocations until a clearer trend emerges.
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And, as always — stay informed — and do your own due diligence,
Jack the Signals Doctor, MIT PhD
Weekly Market Summary: November 25–29, 2024
Executive Summary
In a holiday-shortened week leading up to Thanksgiving, global financial markets navigated a complex array of corporate developments, economic data releases, and geopolitical tensions. U.S. equities continued their ascent, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new record highs, propelled by strong performances in large-cap stocks and a decrease in market rates following the nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary by President-elect Donald Trump. However, looming tariff threats and mixed economic indicators injected volatility and uncertainty into the markets.
Key corporate events included a dramatic plunge in Cassava Sciences' stock after a failed Alzheimer's drug trial, Macy's financial irregularities leading to a significant drop in its share price, and strategic moves by tech giants like Palantir Technologies and Amazon Web Services signaling ongoing innovation in artificial intelligence and quantum computing. Retail giants faced headwinds, with Kohl's and Best Buy reporting disappointing earnings, while Walmart adjusted its diversity initiatives under external pressure.
Internationally, President-elect Trump's announcement of impending tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China raised concerns about potential trade wars and inflationary pressures. European markets experienced modest gains despite political instability in France and mixed economic data from Germany and the UK. In Asia, Japanese markets dipped slightly as the yen strengthened amid safe-haven demand, while Chinese equities rose in hopes of government stimulus despite ongoing declines in industrial profit.
Looking ahead, investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions, key economic indicators—including the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index and employment data—and the potential impact of geopolitical developments on global trade and economic growth.
Detailed Analysis
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