🩻 Week 52, 2024: Buckle Up for 2025: Why a Quiet Holiday Week Could Trigger a Wild New Year
Why December’s Data Could Reshape Your Q1 Strategy
To Smart Investors,
We’re back with fresh, unbiased data for this week's US stock market.
Super Important Stuff!
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Stuff I Published Last Week:
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S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
Excel data:
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
*Also, by the way, the chart above shows precisely why you need the Premium TradingView plan in your life. Look into this:
📊 SPY: Last Month Recap + The Oracle Indicator in Focus
TL;DR: Bullish next week
Recent Price Action
Bullish Harmonic Completion: We see a near-ideal harmonic convergence (point X → B → C → D) with retracement ratios around the 0.445 to 2.611 zone. This confluence often signals an inflection point, especially after a deep drive lower (C-leg).
Pivot near 580: The last swing low around 580 has so far held as a short-term support level. The subsequent candles show strong buying interest off that base.
Volatility & Momentum: Current volatility readings are elevated (99), but momentum remains near neutral (0). Such conditions can precede sharp moves when momentum flips positive.
Key Indicators & Projections
Macro Leading Indicator: As indicated, The Oracle is flashing a bullish signal for the upcoming week. Historically, such signals often align with multi-day upside follow-through.
Short-Term Resistance: Watching 595 to 600 as a critical breakout zone. A clear daily close above 600 could accelerate bullish momentum.
Upside Targets:
First: 600–605 range (psychological handle + minor fib extension)
Second: 615–620 if buyers maintain volume and broader indices remain supportive
Risk Management
Stop-Loss Consideration: Given the recent volatility, a conservative stop under 580 (the harmonic ‘validation point’) is prudent.
Conclusion
All signs currently point to a bullish week ahead for SPY, with momentum likely to pick up if price closes above 595 and especially 600. Still, watch for any abrupt sentiment shifts—elevated volatility can quickly change the technical landscape.
Please send feedback and ideas using comments, PMs, or email. I answer all emails and PMs personally. There is no personal assistant BS here.
And, as always — stay informed — and do your own due diligence,
Jack the Signals Doctor, MIT PhD
Weekly Market Summary: December 23 – December 27, 2024
Executive Summary
It was a holiday-shortened but eventful week for global markets. In the U.S., the Santa Claus rally period (spanning the final five trading days of the year and first two in January) began on a firm note. The major U.S. indices logged moderate weekly gains despite thin trading volumes and profit-taking on Friday. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.8%.
U.S. consumer confidence declined in December to 104.7 from November’s 112.8, placing renewed focus on potential headwinds for early 2025. November durable goods orders fell 1.1%—a fourth decline in six months—while initial jobless claims dipped to 219,000, reflecting a still-tight labor market. Treasuries saw yields creep higher (the 10-year reached 4.64% intraday), partly driven by lighter holiday-week liquidity. Meanwhile, high yield bond issuance was dormant, and continuing jobless claims nudged up to 1.91 million, indicating it’s taking longer for some laid-off workers to find new jobs.
Outside the U.S., Europe’s STOXX 600 added nearly 1% in a shortened trading week, buoyed by modest gains across major bourses. France’s cabinet shuffle and ongoing concerns over trade tensions with the U.S. drew attention, while revised U.K. data showed flat economic growth (0.0%) in Q3. Japan’s stock indices advanced on yen weakness and a small uptick in Tokyo inflation. China’s markets edged up amid hopes for additional stimulus, although industrial profits remained soft. Elsewhere, Turkey delivered its first rate cut since early 2023, citing receding inflation pressures.
Detailed Analysis
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