To Smart Investors,
We’re back with fresh, unbiased data for this week's US stock market.
TL;DR: What happened to the Stock Market last week?
Rising tariffs and inflation concerns discourage consumers from casual spending, heightening economic anxiety.
Escalating tariffs have increased prices for essential goods, shrinking household disposable income.
Mass layoffs across industries have left growing numbers of workers without a steady income or purchasing power.
Geopolitical tensions, including threats of war and hostility toward key allies, destabilize global trade networks.
Regulatory agencies face chaotic staffing fluctuations, undermining oversight and creating policy uncertainty.
Unpredictable executive orders have generated widespread anxiety among businesses and Investors over sudden economic shifts.
Grassroots consumer spending strikes are gaining momentum as public frustration with economic conditions mounts.
International markets are increasingly boycotting exports due to volatile trade policies and diplomatic strains.
I did A LOT of important stuff this week:
Published a new version of the Macro Paradox Indicator and a new Guide on How to Use It.
Published the first part of How I Trade Guide — Intra-day Trading or Day Trading.
https://dgtvr.com - Progressed on the SaaS. It will be shipped when it’s ready.
We will have VERY cool stuff there.
I sent a very important and personal email to all my paying subscribers, which will lead to a new thing soon. For now, it’s a secret.
I received a buy-out offer of nearly $5M for my newsletter, but I said no. I want to build something of value here and truly want my offer to be “lifetime.” For this reason, I’m mentoring an extremely clever young man who will take over all of this one day.
The free weekly Podcast is here:
Stuff I Published Last Week:
As Always In The Sunday Report:
I have written a detailed recap of last week’s market, my predictions for next week, and an ELI5 (Explain Me Like I’m 5).
You can also find my typical quant data and the stock insiders’ significant buys/sells with my interpretation.
Every day, I post summaries of news relevant to Investors. I try to post about 30 minutes before the markets open and cover the last 24 hours of news. On the weekends, I post in the afternoon.
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S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
Excel data:
Our friends at TradingView generated these graphs. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
*Also, the chart above shows precisely why you need the Premium TradingView plan in your life. Plus, being able to monitor 8 graphs simultaneously while running complex indicators on them in parallel. Look into this:
SPY Technical Snapshot
1. Rising Wedge Breakdown
Structure: Over the past month, SPY carved out a textbook rising wedge (higher highs, higher lows converging). This pattern often precedes bearish reversals.
Breakdown Trigger: Price decisively broke below the wedge’s lower trendline, confirming a short-term downside bias.
Measured Move: The wedge’s height projects potential support/target zones roughly 3–5 below the breakout point (i.e., near the mid- to upper-580s on SPY).
2. Macro Paradox Indicator (4–7 Day Lead)
Current Reading:
Green line declining, Red line rising → historically implies a bearish tilt.
Accuracy historically sits at ~70–80% for major directional moves.
Interpretation: The indicator suggests downside momentum could continue for at least another week, confirming the wedge breakdown’s negative bias. Watch for any divergences in the next few days that might foreshadow a counter-rally.
3. Key Levels to Watch
Immediate Support:
Around 590–585 (lower target from the wedge measurement).
Secondary Support:
570s or below if the initial support fails, aligning with extended wedge projections.
Resistance Levels:
600–605 range where the wedge breakdown originated. Any retest of this zone that fails to break higher likely reaffirms bearish continuation.
4. Forward Outlook & Strategy Notes
Short-Term (Next 1–2 weeks): Bearish bias aligned with the Macro Paradox. A bounce or retest into the 600 area could be met with selling pressure.
Medium-Term (2–4 weeks): If support near the 590–585 zone holds, look for consolidation. Otherwise, a failure there sets up a deeper pullback toward the 570s.
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely educational and not financial advice. Always consider multiple factors and your own risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
*Macro Paradox is available for free here
Please send feedback and ideas using comments, PMs, or email. I answer all emails and PMs personally. There is no personal assistant BS here.
And, as always — stay informed — and do your own due diligence,
May the LORD Bless You and Your Loved Ones,
Jack Roshi, Applied Mathematics at MIT
Lead Quant and Board Member, Sabre Capital Group
Opinions are my own
Executive Summary of Last Week:
Market Overview: U.S. indexes posted mixed premarket signals. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures edged higher while Dow futures slipped, driven by a roughly 7% decline in UnitedHealth shares amid a DOJ civil probe into Medicare Advantage billing practices.
Corporate Developments: Amazon outpaced Walmart in quarterly sales—reporting $187.79B versus $180.55B—while Rivian initiated a recall of 17,260 vehicles for headlight issues. Snowflake received a bullish outlook from TD Cowen, and bluebird bio’s shares plunged 37% following its privatization announcement.
Economic Data: Key indicators—including the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMIs, January Existing Home Sales, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey—signaled mounting concerns. Consumer sentiment dipped sharply, and housing data underscored affordability challenges.
Global Impact: European markets were mixed with cautious gains in the STOXX 600 but declines in Germany’s DAX and the UK’s FTSE 100 amid local uncertainties. Japan’s markets suffered from yen strength and rising bond yields, whereas China’s tech sector rallied on strong earnings and supportive government signals.
Weekly Trends: After early week record highs driven by mega cap resilience, profit-taking and disappointing earnings guidance—most notably from Walmart—triggered a broad pullback by week’s end.
Outlook: With key earnings (including NVIDIA) and additional economic reports on the horizon, market participants remain wary of inflation, tariff uncertainties, and geopolitical risks.
Detailed Day-by-Day Analysis:
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