๐ฉป Week 9, 2025: NVIDIA is the Most Shorted Stock of the Week!
High-growth tech stocks may continue to see underperformance
To Smart Investors,
Jack: Iโm back with fresh, unbiased data for this week's US stock market.
I did A LOT of stuff this week and I have an important Poll:
Published 3 guides on The Oracle Indicator here: How Iโm Trading:
As I mentioned in the past, I have written several books on investing and trading over the years, but they were never properly edited.
I got an editor and they are working hard on finishing the books.
They will be available as free downloads to paying Investors and as paperbacks on Amazon!
Iโm super excited about this!The new SaaS/WebApp is coming out VERY soon. We have to choose the tool that I will focus on first.
Explanations for the poll:
Earnings reports arbitrage tool. A long-term stock screener that displays a list of most undervalued companies based purely on fundamentals and updated when new earnings reports come out and cross-compares them to competitors + takes into account historical indicators like ROIIC.
TL;DR: โA tool to find most undervalued stocks based on fundamentals for long-term putting them in your portfolioโOptions scanner tool. Finds top options using AI based on whale(institutions, quants) movements and broad market analysis, including dark pools(hidden trades).
TL;DR: โA tool to find the most attractive optionsโFuture event calendar tool. Integrate a high-level event calendar that ranks upcoming catalysts (earnings, Fed meetings, economic data, etc.) by potential impact on markets or certain stocks. AI-based on general market sentiment and similar historical events.
TL;DR: โA tool to predict seasonal/cyclical events and the marketsโ response to themโ
The free weekly Podcast is here:
Stuff I Published Last Week:
As Always In The Sunday Report:
I have writtenย a detailed recap of last weekโs market, my predictions for next week, and an ELI5 (Explain Me Like Iโm 5).
You can also find my typical quant data and the stock insidersโ significant buys/sells with my interpretation.
Every day, I post summaries of news relevant to Investors. I try to post about 30 minutes before the markets open and cover the last 24 hours of news. On the weekends, I post in the afternoon.
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This daily newsletter is read by decision-makers at companies ranging from Berkshire Hathaway employees to oil traders in the Emirates and Saudi Arabia, and back to Alphabet in Mountain View, California.
S&P500 Heatmap over the last week
This graph was generated by our friends at TradingView. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
Excel data:
Our friends at TradingView generated these graphs. Did you know you can get 60% off the Premium plan forever, even though it's not Black Friday?
*Also, the chart above shows precisely why you need the Premium TradingView plan in your life. Plus, being able to monitor 8 graphs simultaneously while running complex indicators on them in parallel. Look into this:
SPY Technical Snapshot
SPY Analysis (Last 30 Days & Forward Outlook)
Below is a concise, no-fluff, yet advanced technical rundown based on the attached charts and the Macro Paradoxindicator. Remember that Macro Paradox leads the SPY by 2โ7 days, with a ~70โ80% accuracy predicting broad market moves.
1. Rising Wedge Breakdown
Pattern Identified: A rising wedge from mid-January into late-February.
Bearish Resolution: Price broke below the lower boundary, confirming the wedgeโs downward target (see green โTargetโ label on chart).
Measured Move: The wedge implies a drop toward the mid- to upper-560s (on the SPY chart scale) once the breakdown confirmed.
Implication: Although price has bounced off the lows (in the 580โ585 region), the broader wedge breakdown target remains valid unless thereโs a definitive close back withinโor aboveโformer wedge support.
2. Macro Paradox Signal
Green Line Rising: Historically aligns with upcoming positive SPY movement.
Red Line Easing Lower: Confirms a short-term bullish divergence.
Lead Time: 2โ7 days. Any ongoing upward drift in the green line suggests a near-term rally in SPY, even if the wedgeโs longer-term target looms.
Implication: We may see a 1โ2 week rebound attempt into the 600โ605 zone on SPY if the green line continues higher and the red line remains subdued.
3. Short-Term vs. Mid-Term Projection
Short-Term (Next 2โ7 Days)
Likely bounce toward 600โ605 given improving Macro Paradox signals.
Oversold technical conditions also favor a retracement rally.
Mid-Term (Next 2โ4 Weeks)
Rising wedge breakdown still in play unless SPY closes decisively above the wedge apex (~610).
Downside risk remains toward 565โ570 if the bounce fades.
4. Risk Considerations
Volatility is elevated, so false breakouts or breakdowns are more common.
Macro Factors (CPI data, Fed communications) could override technicals, especially near critical support/resistance zones.
Shareholder Pressure: In the face of potential volatility, emphasize risk managementโstops, hedges, or partial profit-taking on any short-term rallies.
Final Thoughts
The Macro Paradoxโs bullish (green up) reading suggests a short-lived relief rally.
The rising wedge pattern warns that a deeper retracement may resume afterward unless price firmly reclaims ~610.
Maintaining flexibilityโand watching the Macro Paradox for continued confirmationโremains paramount.
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely educational and not financial advice. Always consider multiple factors and your own risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
*Macro Paradox is available for free here
Please send feedback and ideas using comments, PMs, or email.ย I answer all emails and PMs personally.ย There is no personal assistant BS here.
And, as always โ stay informed โ and do your own due diligence,
With every good wish, I remain
Yours sincerely in Christ,
Dr. Jack Roshi
Applied Mathematics Department, MIT
Lead Quant and Board Member, Sabre Capital Group
Opinions are my own
Executive Summary of Last Week:
Late February 2025 was marked by volatile market dynamics driven by tariff threats, mixed earnings, and persistent inflation concerns. Key highlights include:
Tariff & Trade Tensions: President Trumpโs announcements of imminent tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China spurred uncertainty across sectors.
Earnings & Corporate Moves: Companies like Super Micro, Lucid, and Nvidia saw dramatic price swingsโNvidiaโs earnings were a double-edged sword, while Super Microโs overdue filings averted Nasdaq delisting.
Economic Data & Consumer Sentiment: A steep drop in the Consumer Confidence Index (down from 105.3 to 98.3) and rising jobless claims added to the growth concerns.
Fixed Income & Bond Yields: U.S. Treasuries rallied as yields fell to multiโmonth lows, reflecting a flight to quality amid economic uncertainty.
Global Market Reactions: While the Nasdaq tumbled 3.5% over the week, the Dow gained 1.0%, and European markets recorded mixed performances, underscoring the uneven sentiment globally.
For a deeper dive into the intraday moves and granular dataโfrom February 24 through February 28โplease see the detailed analysis below (paywalled).
Detailed Day-by-Day Analysis:
Subscribe to access the full advanced breakdown below, featuring in-depth technical commentary, granular market data, and strategic insights.
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